Oussama Hayek

Lebanon's unacceptable Lèse majesté laws

2011-07-27T10:49:00.000-07:00

The news that Zeid Hamdan was briefly arrested for insulting our Dear Great Leader President General Suleiman (henceforth DGLPGS) was unsurprising, but nonetheless a sad reminder of the atavism of Lebanon's legal system. Indeed, every once in a while we hear of one person or another arrested for insulting DGLPGS.

In a normal country with a real "majesté" such as Britain, the laws against insulting the Queen or King have not been prosecuted since the 18th Century. In Holland, calling the Queen a whore can set you back a €400 fine. Lebanon seems to be in a league with fine beacons of progress like Thailand in enforcing Lèse majesté laws.

The problem is that DGLPGS is not a near-deity like the Thai royals. He is merely an elected official in a ramshackle democracy. Even ramshackle democracies can't function if elected officials cannot be (harshly) criticised.

In the 19th Century, the Queen of Thailand's boat capsized. Because the Lèse majesté laws barred anyone from touching the royals, no one was able to save her. She couldn't swim. She drowned and died.

Somewhere in all of this should be a moral for DGLPGS, but now that I am sipping my third Scotch of the day, I can't quite articulate it.

Open letter to Mufti Qabbani

2011-06-26T07:53:00.000-07:00

Dear Mufti,

Your press release regarding the domestic violence law is simply unacceptable. It is slap in the face of every civilised Lebanese.

I am not going to go through the press release and make an argument over whether Islam provides adequate protection for women, as you claim, or not. My problem lies with the logic of the press release. Basically, you are arguing that because Islam provides adequate protection to women, this law infringes on their religious rights. In case you have not noticed, dear Mufti, Moslems don't live in vacuum.

In trying to understand your actions, I see two possibilities:

1. If you believe every other religion in Lebanon provides the same "protection" to women as your religion, you need to make that argument clear. In this case, why not team up with the representatives of every other religious community and make constructive proposals on how the law can be improved? The law that was drafted by the Lebanese government was intended to take into account the constraints of every religious community.

2. If you believe that at least one other religion in Lebanon does not provide the same "protection" to women, then why not make some constructive proposal and insist that the law be passed? That would be in keeping with the morality that you preach.

Assault, battery and rape are crimes, not religious rights. Arguing that a law to protect women is an infringement of the autonomy of your community is simply not acceptable, unless you believe that your autonomy is more important than they morality that you preach. In this case, why not follow the example of Hassan Nasrallah and start building a state within a state? You can't be "Mufti of the Republic" and undermine the Republic at the same time.

Default is neither inevitable nor desirable

2011-06-22T10:00:00.000-07:00

I had a brief online debate with Ghassan Karam on Lebanon's debt sustainability (see comment section of Lebanese Sovereign Debt Default: An Inevitability) , which is worth highlighting for two reasons:

1. I think Ghassan Karam is a reasonably credible commentator on several issues.

2. I think his opinion on this particular issue is both wrong and reckless.

To start with, and to be very clear: I am in no way defending the fiscal policy of Hariri's last government. As I argued in "When government by auto-pilot is better than active government" Lebanon was "more lucky that good" in having a primary surplus. But I also argued in Lebanon's $18,000,000,000 question:

" a Hizbollah-inspired government will have to try harder than a Hariri-led government to instil ... confidence ... This is in part because they have no track record in government, and in part because their past pronouncements on economic issues are reckless"

I think that at this stage it is pointless to argue over how the debt was accumulated, unless you are planning to write a sequel to South Park's Captain Hindsight. All that matters is that Lebanon has a ton of debt of short term maturities. The question is how to get out of this predicament, which is taking a big toll on public finances. There are only three options: cut spending, raise taxes or default. Ghassan thinks that cutting spending is impossible, raising taxes is difficult (he thinks that raising the VAT is wrong because it impacts the poor more than the rich) and so thinks that default is inevitable.

I think he is wrong on all three counts.

Cutting spending is not impossible. Subsidies to our dysfunctional electric utility alone (over $1.2 bn) are equivalent to more than half of the debt service payments. Cutting government staffing is also possible. Walk into any government office and all you will see is a hoard of navel-gazing underemployed. As an example, let's take the number of times your passport gets checked while leaving the airport (4): before check-in, after check-in and before passport control, at passport control, and then one last time before getting on the plane. One employee at passport control is enough for most countries. Firing the rest means a saving of three salaries.

I also don't think we exhausted the possibilities of raising revenue. VAT is not regressive. Higher income groups tend to spend more on higher value-added goods, lower income groups spend more on more basic goods. The VAT makes sense, its efficient, hard to avoid, and creates an incentive for saving over consumption. (Personally, I would rather go for a flat tax on all income, but I understand that most Lebanese tend to be too left-leaning for such a radical idea, preferring Byzantine loopholes).

We have not exhausted the possibility of raising revenue through privatisation either. How many countries still have government owned telecom operators, for example? It's a scandal that we have not privatised the obvious.

Default will be the most difficult and most damaging solution. Lebanese debt is held mostly by Lebanese banks, and so a default by the government will wipe out everyones savings. The examples of how this plays out are many, but for a short 1 page summary of potential implications, take a look at this article and insert the word Lebanon for Greece. Now ask the average Lebanese if they would they rather see their life's savings wiped out, or a combination of higher electricity bills, a slightly higher VAT, a private telecom service and some government officials fired? I suspect the answer will be clear.

New Government: More good news than bad news

2011-06-13T11:09:00.000-07:00

So, Lebanon finally has a new government. First the bad news: for a country that has a Guinness Book of World Records fetish, it is a shame we did not break Belgium's record of number of days without a government. It would have been a nice complement to our existing records of the biggest Hummus plate, largest glass of wine, world's largest Kibbeh and other significant stuff.

Now for the good news. We have broken the taboo of maintaining the "sectarian balance." Compare the number of Druze to Shiites to get the picture. This is big stuff! It sets a good precedent.

As an added bonus, this comes with other benefits:

1. We have ensured that only the best and brightest get into government, regardless of their family background. We have two members of the Karami family, for example.

2. We demonstrated to the world that we do not judge a book by its cover. This is how a party that uses a Swastika in motion as an emblem gets a seat in government.

3. While we did not break Sri Lanka's records of most number of Ministers in Government (52), we certainly broke it on a per capita basis: 52/20,000,000 < 30/4,000,000. Ha! Suck on that Sri Lanka!

4. I also suspect that we broke the world record in the number of ministers who actually lost seats in Parliamentary elections but still got into government. Confirming this suspicion, however, will take more research than I'm willing to invest.

Shame on AUB Faculty and Students

2011-06-11T07:48:00.000-07:00

I found the news that James Wolfensohn, former president of the World Bank, cancelled his speech at AUB amid accusations by faculty that he "supports Israel" deeply disturbing. Before anyone accuses me of being insensitive to Palestinians, you can read my blog posts here and here.

Faculty have the right to express their view, of course. But this incident exposes something disturbing about the atmosphere at AUB and in Lebanon. It betrays a complete lack of intellectual depth, as well as an intolerance that borders on psychosis. You can read the whole thing here, but the main points are that:

"We believe that honoring Mr. Wolfensohn – a former president of the World Bank[1], standing member of the international advisory council of the Israel Democracy Institute[2], and investor in a company (Better Place) that among other activities intends to build infrastructure to serve Israeli settlers in the West Bank[3]– symbolically undermines AUB’s legacy in the struggle for social justice and its historical connection to Beirut, to Palestine and beyond."

For [1] they argue that the World bank is no good because "Numerous books and scholarly articles have documented the devastating effects of World Bank policies in the global South." Global South? This is generally the vocabulary of dinosaurs like Clovis Maksoud. As evidence they cite the work by anti-globalisation activist Danaher, a sociologist that pretends to understand economics 101.

Item [2] is their big "gotcha" item. But this one is perplexing too. The Israel Democracy Institute, actually, sounds like a pretty neutral organisation on a lot of issues. They publish a "Peace Index" and reports that do not paint a flattering picture of Israel. This "gotcha" item is only relevant if you are a die-hard supporter of Hamas, because even Palestinian Authority is not disputing Israel's existence.

Finally, item [3] is that Wolfensohn invested in a company that has a subsidiary that is doing business in Israel. Really?? This is the sort of tenuous connection that I would bet you can make for most Arab leaders! I would not be surprised if the same professors that signed this petition have their pensions invested in funds that have invested in companies that have subsidiaries that are doing business in Israel.

In a normal country, this sort of frivolous protest would be heard but largely ignored. But Lebanon is not a normal country, unfortunately. James Wolfensohn probably cancelled because he was scared of the atmosphere. I don't blame him.

UPDATE: AUB President Peter Dorman published an excellent statement regarding James Wolfensohn. I encourage you all to read it, as it highlights Wolfensohn's many contributions in support of Palestinians.

Something is rotten in the state of Syria

2011-06-09T14:18:00.000-07:00

Something stinks about what's happening in Syria. No, I am not just talking about Assad. But I'm getting the feeling that the activists stink as well.

The mystery of Gay Girl in Damascus is best summarised by Andy Carvin. She may be a hoax, but who is behind it?

The more I look at some of the videos shared by activists, the more I wonder what percentage of these are staged. Take a look at the video below, highlighted on Hussain Abdul-Hussain's otherwise excellent blog. Who could have filmed this? Would the Syrian army allow someone to film at such close proximity? Doubtful. Is this produced by the Syrian army? But why would they do that? Could this be staged? Possibly.

Don't get me wrong: I fully support the demonstrators. I also don't have any doubt that the Syrian army is doing the sort of stuff shown in the video, and a lot worse. I just have doubts that a lot of the videos we are seeing are real, and, as a result, I can't help but feel that it is a shame for Syria that so many activists are so damned sloppy.

Democracy is a means, not an end

2011-05-29T16:38:00.000-07:00

Two recent and thoughtful pieces on the Middle East are worth contemplating:

"Democracy or Liberty" by Steve Hanke in Asharq al-Awsat (also in Arabic) and
"The Weak Foundations of Arab Democracy" by Timur Kuran in the New York Times

One of the striking features of the revolutions in the Arab world has been the difficulty in understanding what the demonstrators want. Yes, they wanted to do away with the Mubaraks and Assads of the world, but what do they want their countries to be like the day after the next election? ( In a previous post, I highlighted the confusion in Egypt).

Democracy cannot be an end. It is simply a workable formula for self government, which has been proven successful when certain preconditions are met. It has led to disastrous results when these conditions are absent, If in doubt, take a look at Chavez's Venezuela.

Hanke raises a very important point: the success of the US is precisely because the Founding Fathers subordinated Democracy to Liberty. Individual freedom was the overarching principle that circumscribed policy. Democratic decisions that breached that principle, no matter how popular, were taken to court.

The absence of a serious discussion on the role of the state, and individual rights, is woefully absent from political discourse in the Middle East. The demonstrators (in Egypt in particular) are focussing on entitlements, not liberties. If asked to explain their position, the demonstrators effectively call for bigger government, not a government constrained by the protection of individual rights.

Timur Kuran presents an interesting hypothesis of why this is the case. Kuran's point is that the preconditions of democracy are lacking in the region because the culture is based on Sharia law. In turn, Sharia law does not provide for the concept of a corporation, and this is why civil society is weak. Without civil society to champion individual rights democracy is bound to fail.

I'm not familiar enough with Islamic issues to opine on the validity of Kuran's hypothesis. But regardless of its validity, I'm not convinced that civil society is a precondition for success. Civil society can also mean special interest groups that will turn any constitution into Salmagundi. Brazil's experience in writing it's 1988 constitution with far-reaching input from civil society is instructive. Since 1988 Brazil needed 67 constitutional amendments and three serious economic crises (including a default) to get policies "about right." Since enacting the Bill of Rights in 1791, the US amended the constitution only 17 times (bringing the total to 27 amendments).

The problem in the Arab world is the complete absence of thoughtful leadership. I don't expect the average demonstrator to have read either Adam Smith or Thomas Paine. But unfortunately, few people are even vaguely familiar with their ideas at all. I was surprised and dismayed to discover through an article in the Wall Street Journal that most liberal thinkers have never been translated into Arabic.

Assad's genital fixation

2011-05-28T11:21:00.000-07:00

Hamza al-Khatib was a 13 year old boy in Syria. He was killed in custody. They cut off his penis.

While it may seem difficult to understand this story, some clues are right before our eyes. This is part of a pattern. Suleiman al-Khalidi wrote a thoughtful piece (Shattered humanity inside Syria's security apparatus) about his days in captivity in Syria, that included this passage: "When they told him to take down his pants, I could see his swollen genitals, tied tight with a plastic cable."

Genitals seem to be of particular interest to Syrian security forces.

Anyone remember Jeffrey Dahmer? Now imagine that as a state institution. Suddenly Gaddafi appears like an entertaining eccentric, while Mubarak and Ben Ali are saints.

Assad ♥ Kids

2011-05-27T10:53:00.000-07:00

Syria's official news agency today carried a news item that was just too good to let pass without comment. I grabbed the screen shot below, in case they decide to remove the story as they have done in the past.

President Assad issued a decree in which he effectively gives students extra grades. Seriously?

In one swoop, the man demonstrates that:

1. That he is indeed a dictator. (In case anyone had a lingering doubt, he's the dude that can decide to do whatever, whenever).

2. No school or employer should take Syrian students seriously. The grades are determined by the government when the feel like it. Grades do not necessarily reflect your abilities. (If you want a job, you better suck up to the government to give you a job).

But the decree also raises other possibilities:

1. Assad is still deeply involved in the Bekaa drug trade, and he is testing the quality of the stuff himself.

2. Assad loves the young ones, in the same way that Kim Jong-Il loves the young ones. All that's needed is for him to start putting freaky statues of friendly animals around town.

Source: By (Stephan)

Introducing Lebanon's very own Buthaina Shaaban

2011-04-20T08:32:00.000-07:00

Michel Aoun's press secretary (he actually has one!), May Akl, wrote an outrageous piece for Foreign Policy.

The bottom line is that she dismisses the Syrian demonstrators as Sunni fundamentalists. She is outraged:

"....it would be outrageous -- to say the least -- to think that in Syria, the U.S. position will be aligned with that of Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi"

So, basically, the US should oppose something (that is in it's own interest) simply because a lunatic supports it? This, alas, is an excellent example of the Politics of Spite at which Aoun excels.

The underlying fear is evident in this passage:

"...the fall of the Assad regime is very likely to have critical consequences on neighboring countries. From Turkey to Israel, going through Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, this fall would mean a radical alteration of the political, and more importantly religious, map of the Middle East."

The corollary to this is that the "religious" identity of the politicians is more important than the actual policies. But then, what other analysis can you expect out of Lebanon's sillier sectarian minds?

I've never heard of May Akl before. Apparently she writes occasionally for the Daily Star, just like Buthaina Shaaban. She is a lot more eloquent than her boss, just like Buthaina Shaaban is more eloquent than Assad. But she does not seems to have actual policy responsibility, just like Buthaina Shaaban. Her only handicap seems to be that she is not a relative of her boss, just like Buthaina Shaaban.

Setting the Gold Standard in Transparency

2011-04-02T08:26:00.000-07:00

Syria's Ministry of Interior, a model of openness and transparency in government, is inviting offers for teargas on its website.

Update: The government has now removed the original site, but here's the webcache, via Mustapha.

Three Big Pigs

2011-04-01T04:14:00.000-07:00

Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi, co-staring the Angry Birds.

Two reasons to worry about Egypt

2011-03-31T12:50:00.000-07:00

Mubarak's fall was one of the most exciting moments in the Middle East in a long while. But I'm not sure that anything we are seeing now is cause for optimism. In a nutshell, here's the problem:

1. Egypt faces impossible choices: I will spare you a diatribe on Egypt's budget and debt dynamics. Suffice it to highlight that on the eve of Egypt's revoltution, the country had a budget deficit of 8% of GDP, depended on Tourism for 20% of its foreign exchange earnings and had expenditures that look like this:

Government Expenditures as % of GDP

Source: IMF

You are reading this right: the government spends 6.1% of GDP subsidizing fuel (5.1%) and food (1%). In his last action in office, Mubarak raised wages, so the 7.1% spent on wages is now higher than it used to be. But oil prices have also risen globally since then, as have food prices. My point? The government is facing a much bigger bill than is implied by the chart above, and must cut subsidies - but this is likely to get people rioting again!

2. No one knows what Egyptians want: Everyone agrees that Egyptians want democracy, but what else do they want? What are their economic priorities? We don't know, because the country has never been a democracy. To appreciate the depth of this mystery, you need to look no further than the Twitter feed of Wael Ghonim, one of the admirable curators of the Egyptian revolution. A couple of days ago, he was asking people via twitter to suggest topics for him for an editorial he was invited to write.

It is heartwarming that a leading activist is listening to the crowds, but it is also worrisome that the demands of Egyptians are not immediately obvious even to himself! Predictably, the reponses were conflicting:

Yes, it is good to see some people want freer trade, but some people want more government spending from a government that can't even afford to maintain its current spending!

I don't envy the economic policy makers in Egypt. They are damned whatever they do.

Top 5 reasons why Hafez Assad was better than Bashar

2011-03-30T10:39:00.000-07:00

5. Hafez did not pretend to reform. He just didn't reform.
4. Hafez took responsibility for his actions. He did not shy away from assuming responsibility for killing.
3. Hafez was consistent. He did not send mixed messages.
2. Hafez listened to his advisors. He did not say they want to reform, but "I'm holding them back."
1. Hafez did not giggle like a 5 year old girl at his own jokes.

To all "pragmatists" (Hillary Clinton), crypto-intellectuals (David Ignatius), or downright insane (Joshua Landis), eat your own words about Bashar the reformer now.

Syria Ambassador Imad Moustapha is not defecting

2011-03-27T11:52:00.000-07:00

I noted that some people saw the blog by Syria-clown-in-DC, Imad Moustapha, as a sign of wavering. He referred to the dead in Dara'a as "Martyrs". It is not. SANA, the official Syrian news agency also referred to them as "martyrs":

Bashar al-Assad offered "condolences to the families of the two martyrs who died during the unfortunate events which took place in Daraa on Friday"

The truth is that every other person that dies in the Middle East is a "martyr". Even car accident victims are "martyrs." The word doesn't mean much more than "dead of unnatural causes."

But the blog entry is more interesting because of its Freudian slips: read Shostakovich for spineless, and "Xenon" (Zeno of Tarsus) for the Syrian regime's unabashed regional expansionary policies.

Click on the image for my comments.

Assad nominates Hariri for PM!

2011-03-26T10:57:00.000-07:00

Hussain Abdul-Hussain's blog highlights the author's own article in Kuwait's Al-Rai paper. The Washington-based author says that Bashar Assad has approached US officials to suggest that he is ready to recommend (to his allies in Beirut) the nomination of Saad Al-Hariri as Prime Minister of Lebanon again. Read the whole article here (Arabic).

If true, this confirms that Assad is desperate to re-ingratiate himself with Arabs, by appearing to move away from his alliance with Iran. Tony Badran has an excellent piece on why Assad will not move away from Iran. For an in-depth look at the complex relationship between Hizbollah and Syria, I recommend this piece by Emile Hokayem.

It is easy to look at Assad's gesture as a kiss of death. But it does not need to be. March 14 have been re-invigorated by the recent protests, and are back "on message" by focussing squarely on Hizbollah's weapons. Assad cannot deliver Hizbollah's weapons to the negotiating table, and it is difficult to imagine another Hariri premiership now that can duck the question of those weapons. This nomination will only expose Assad's own impotence.

Has Assad lost control of Syria?

2011-03-26T05:48:00.000-07:00

Ignace Leverrier, a former French diplomat who lived in Damascus, asks this question in Le Monde. His question is prompted by a recent incident where the Syrian Ministry of Information stopped the distribution of a newspaper, Al-Watan, only to allow distribution again. More importantly, he points to the puzzling press conference by Buthaina Shaaban in which she said that the President ordered the police not to shoot at protesters. We all know what happened the next day.

Are security forces acting independently of Assad, or is the president so devious that he is deliberately making statements that encourage people to demonstrate only to have them shot?

The International Crisis Group published a note yesterday that highlighted the tension between the reformers on one hand and the "old guard" on the other. They argue that:

President Assad must show visible leadership and do so now. His political capital today depends less on his past foreign policy successes than on his ability to live up to popular expectations at a time of dangerous domestic crisis.

To my mind, however, it is very clear that Assad simply does not have what it takes to show leadership. The result of all his talk of reform is best summarized by the Human Rights Watch report published on the 10th anniversary of his rise to power: Syria - A Wasted Decade.

As dozens of Syrians get killed, Assad has yet to speak to his people. He simply sends out Ms. Shaaban to peddle the same promises the world has heard for a decade. Read this article from June 11, 2005 - it sounds like it could have been published it yesterday!

I don't think Assad has "lost" control of Syria, because I don't think he has ever had real control. He accomplished little, which only shows that he is too indecisive or simply unable to lead. What this means, of course, is that anyone hoping for "change" in Syria should not hold their breath for what Assad will say next. Whatever he says will carry no credibility. The fate of the regime will be decided on the streets, and the turning point will only come when Syria's security forces begin to lose cohesion.

Cancel Al-Dardari talk in London

2011-03-25T14:50:00.000-07:00

On March 23, while Syrian security forces were busy killing peaceful protestors, the Arab Bankers Association in London announced this event on its website:

"The Arab Bankers Association would like to invite you to a presentation by HE Mr. Abdullah Al-Dardari, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs in Syria on" Recent Development in the Banking Sector in Syria" on Wednesday 30th of March 2011.
Please find enclosed details for the evening.
For reservation please contact the ABA on:
Zina- 020 7659 4889 zhanna@arab-bankers.co.uk
Houda- 020 7659 4892 hlahiani@arab-bankers.co.uk"

Why is the Arab Bankers Association hosting a senior member of Assad's regime at this time? I'm sure this event was planned well before recent events unfolded. But it is not too late for the ABA to avoid displaying the same lack of judgement as Vogue. The ABA can cancel this event.

Please help encourage the ABA to cancel this event by sending an email to either of the two email addresses above. If you are too busy to write an email, you can simply copy and paste the text below:

I am dismayed that the Arab Bankers Association is hosting Deputy Prime Minister Al-Dardari of Syria on 30 March 2011.

Syria is no doubt an interesting destination for business and banking. But Syria is at an important juncture, as its people struggle for freedom. With dozens reported killed by the regime over the past few days, maintaining this event with a senior member of the regime betrays a lack of sensitivity to those who died.

I hope that the ABA will take the courageous step of cancelling this event, which can only bring embarrassment to your association. I also hope that the ABA will host a meaningful event about opportunities in Syria once the regime is changed. Only such an event will bring added value to both Syria’s economy and the Arab banking community in London.

Nasrallah hedges his bets

2011-03-19T12:26:00.000-07:00

It was easy to miss Nasrallah's speech today, given everything else happening in the Middle East. But it was noteworthy.

His thrust was characteristically rambling, but his tone wasn't especially angry. He even made an attempt at puerile humour (Hariri will not defend Lebanon with his jacket), which seemed well tailored to his happy audience.

Overall, there was nothing new in what he said, but what he did not say was noteworthy. His rhetoric about the "before and after" of the STL indictment is gone! He's now saying that the indictment does not matter, because it is known known, rather than a known unknown.

It was also noteworthy, though hardly surprising, that he talked about Arab uprisings everywhere but did not mention Syria.

Nasrallah is nervous. He's going to lose his biggest ally, and he knows it.

Is another Jumblatt turnaround imminent?

2011-03-19T06:02:00.000-07:00

The dust barely settled on Jumblatt's inelegant flip-flop of January. Casting his lot with "Syria and Hizbollah" was never going to be an easy task. The recent batch of Wikileaks cables only confirm that Hizbollah will never trust him. So, it is not surprising that as recently last Sunday, Jumblatt was still trying to have it both ways: there were protestors carrying the PSP flag and his pictures at the March 14 rally.

Now Syria is creating a new challenge. Dara'a is not the only city in Syria that is witnessing anti-regime demonstrations, but it is the city where the largest demonstrations have taken place. It also happens to be a mostly Druze city.

Jumblatt has often tried to project a role of a "regional" Druze leader, by hosting meetings for representatives of his community from both Syria and Israel. He cannot stay on "Syria's side", or even stay mute if Druze are being arrested or killed in Syria.

What will he do now? My hunch is that he will reach out to a bottle of vodka for the next couple of days. His next flip-flop will be very painful.

I just can't conceal my schadenfreude.

[Update: As events unfolded in Syria, I became aware that Dara'a is not a "mostly Druze city", as I was lead to believe. My source, a Druze himself, seems to have somewhat exaggerated this one. It does not change the fact, though, that the area includes a significant Druze population which is active in the anti-Assad demonstrations.]

Charbel Nahhas shines again

2011-03-02T12:51:00.000-08:00

Readers of this blog know that I have a very low opinion of Charbel Nahhas.

It comes as no surprise to read in today's Daily Star that he seems to be at the vanguard of obstructing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

"Nahhas told Berri that the [telecommunication] data in Bellemare’s possession was unofficial and did not carry the signature of any telecom company. He said that Bellemare, in his new request to the Telecommunications Ministry, wanted this data to be official and signed according to the rules so that it can be adopted as a legal document at the STL and used as evidence in the draft indictment handed over by Bellemare to pretrial judge Daniel Fransen in January, the sources added.

Following Nahhas’ refusal to cooperate with the UN Investigation Commission, Lebanese security and judicial authorities directly approached the telecom companies which supplied Bellemare with unsigned data, telecommunication sources said. Nahhas rejected Bellemare’s request for signed data, the sources said."

Up until now, and for all his Change and Reform bluster, Nahhas would have be remembered for one achievement: it is his lack of competence that helped Lebanon attain the world's slowest internet speeds. Now we can add Obstruction of Justice to his list of achievements.

Bravo, Charbel.

Vogue's excuses are worse than its deed

2011-03-01T16:40:00.000-08:00

Atlantic's Max Fischer managed to track down Vogue senior editor Chris Knutsen to ask about the decision published Joan Buck's article about Asma Al-Assad. Fischer's full article is a must-read.

Two things are apparent from Knutsen's reply:

1. The decision to publish the article was not made because they did not think it through. They thought long and hard for "more than a year"!

2. Vogue decided to operate within the media restrictions of Syria: "we strived within those limitations to provide a balanced view of the first lady and her self-defined role as Syria's cultural ambassador."

The most telling part of the Atlantic article, though, is its exposure of the confusion in Chris Knutsen's mind:

"I asked Knutsen if he thinks Bashar al-Assad is a despot. He sighed, "Yeah. I would call him an autocrat." When I pressed him on the point, he said, "there's no freedom there," adding, "it's not as secular as we might like."

It's not apparent why Knutsen conflates secularism with freedom. What is apparent is that Knutsen, living up to the worst stereotypes of his industry, seems to have the intellectual depth of Brüno. Quelle surprise.

Asma al-Assad, or the psycho terror of children

2011-02-26T02:40:00.000-08:00

David Kenner's excellent blog highlights the ridiculous puff piece on Syria's ruling family in Vogue: Asma al-Assad, A Rose in the Desert.

"It's hard to imagine that a Vogue editor woke up this morning and decided it wouldn't be hugely embarrassing to publish a puff piece today, at the moment of the greatest upheaval in the Middle East in two generations, about Syria's ruling family. But that appears to be exactly what happened."

The most revealing part of the article, though, is the description of the psychological terror Asma uses on a visit to a school run by her charity, Massar. She tells the children:

"I’ve been advised that we have to close down this center so as to open another one somewhere else,' she says. Kids’ mouths drop open. Some repress tears. Others are furious. One boy chooses altruism: 'That’s OK. We know how to do it now; we’ll help them.'
Then the first lady announces, 'That wasn’t true. I just wanted to see how much you care about Massar."

I suppose this behaviour is rationalised somewhere in Asma's subconscious. She is simply preparing Syria's less fortunate children for the type of tests they will get at the hands of the Syrian state as grown-ups.

Why did Vogue's Joan Juliet Buck write this article? France's satirical Charlie Hebdo has an interesting investigative report about how Ben Ali bought off the French Press: "La Presse Française achetée par Ben Ali." But I am not suggesting that Ms. Buck is sleazy. I just think that she lacks common sense.

Qaddafispeak

2011-02-24T09:22:00.000-08:00

For those of you who have been too busy to read up on the details of how Al-Qaeda is putting drugs in Nescafe, here is the best synopsis yet of Qaddafi's speech.

Alternatively, thanks to Vanity Fair, you can make up your own.

Libya is a very different place

2011-02-21T04:05:00.000-08:00

Watching Seif al-Islam's surreal "demonstrators are on Ecstasy and want to create an Islamic Emirate" speech yesterday, I recalled my own experience with Libyan officials some years ago. Libya has no one who is even remotely qualified in government ... And qualified Libyans have no government experience. To understand the depth of the problem, here's my first hand experience with some Libyan officials:

I will not name the officials, or their exact functions. Let's call them X and Y. Both were very senior cabinet level officials who were attending an international meeting. Their attendance was confirmed at the last minute. They were unwilling or unable to speak any foreign language, and the "official translator" they brought with them was a very attractive Palestinian woman who simply went shopping. It was not possible to procure another translator/escort for them in time, and so I had to stick with them for 2 days.

1. The Medical Exam:
X was not interested in going to his first scheduled meeting. Instead, he called and asked if I can help him find an eye doctor. He needed new reading glasses. I spent half an hour "translating" a Snellen chart. Finally, the doctor asked "can you see with these lenses better than without them?" X replied:"In Allah's name, I don't know. You're the doctor. You tell me."

2. Momma's bra:
Y never said a thing in any meeting. He listened, but neither he nor his assistant took any notes. He warmly shook hands with everyone at the end of the meeting, though. Finally, Y came to me and spoke in a hushed voice: "I need to go to a pharmacy". He paced up and down the aisles, and finally found his target: He picked up all the available containers of Johnson's Baby Talcum Powder. My mind started racing: Is this guy trying to conceal large quantities of cocaine? Could it be even more sinister: Anthrax? He noticed the worried look on my face and explained: "my mother gets a terrible rash in the summer. She likes to use this under her bra", he smiled contentedly.

3. The Great Madman's River:
As I headed to see them off at the airport, we chatted about infrastructure development in Libya. I asked about the great leader's manmade river. "The water is no good, you can't drink it" Y thundered, "it's blue." Blue? He explained: "I've seen the water reservoirs, they look blue, like sea water."

Libya has a serious problem, and it is not just Kaddhafi. The problem is that everyone in government has to be replaced. The country needs rebuild everything, from scratch. There is no capable bureaucracy that can hold the place together in the interim. Unfortunately, Seif maybe right about one thing: chaos is on the horizon.

Mohammad and Jesus

2011-02-10T09:39:00.000-08:00

Source: NYR Bog.

Is Syria next?

2011-02-01T14:56:00.000-08:00

Before you dismiss this question as a sweet dream, consider the following:

1. The catalyst that drove people to the streets of Tunisia and Egypt now, as opposed to say six months ago, is rising food prices. This is a global phenomenon that is impacting all countries, including Syria.

2. Assad is clearly sweating. Take a look at the interview he had with the Wall Street Journal yesterday. The timing of the interview is itself enough evidence of the pressure he is facing.

3. The last two days have seen a remarkable "buzz" around activists that seem to be organising for demonstrations in Syria. One Facebook group got a remarkable 10,000 members in 3 days. You can read more about it on CNN, the FT, WSJ.

Sure Syria is a controlled economy, so international price increases are not automatically translated into domestic prices. But this means Syria's subsidy bill needs to increase sharply. The Economist had a good article in its January 20 issue highlighting the tough choices the government is facing, as well as its shrinking pool of subsidies.

The Benihana Outrage

2011-02-01T10:44:00.000-08:00

Many of you are already aware of Benihana's outrageous attempt to sue Mark, a blogger in Kuwait, for writing a bad review. Jad Aoun's blog highlights the issues, and Mustapha's BeirutSpring elegantly sums up the feeling of most Middle Eastern bloggers with: "We are all Mark now."

This is an issue that can have repercussions for the freedom of expression of bloggers in the region. The Middle East is not a place known for a free and independent press, and blogging is one of the few outlets for independent opinion.

Regardless of the merits of the case, Benihana has been callous in handling it. Even if they have a case (which I doubt) the manner with which their manager (Mike Servo) attempts to stereotype the Lebanese in his comments to Mark is bizarre. As a US corporation, I am sure that Benihana's corporate offices will not look favourably to their local manager's actions.

They should withdraw their case immediately, but whatever the outcome, their local manager must be fired now.

Those of you reading this please take a moment to write to Benihana of Tokyo Group via their website. If you are too busy, simply send them a link to this blog posting. You can also join the Boycott Benihana Kuwait Facebook group.

The good, the bad, and the ugly in Egypt

2011-01-31T09:19:00.000-08:00

1. Good News: Mubarak is still around.
This means that the army is strong enough, and coherent enough, to anchor the transition to democracy.

2. Bad News: Mubarak is still around.
He still does not get the message, and things may need to get worse before they get better.

3. Ugly News: Mubarak is still around.

Reading the Mikati leaves

2011-01-27T06:21:00.000-08:00

In a previous post, I argued that a Hizbollah-inspired government will have to try harder than a Hariri-led government on the economic front. This is because they have no track record, and because some of their views on economic issues have been worrisome (especially those of the Aoun clan).

Furthermore, if the new government were were to flaunt UN resolutions, they will also kill the possibility of international financial support. This raises the stakes on the economic front in a country where most of the debt is of very short maturities.

All of this implies there is no room for waffling. It is time to take a close look at Mikati's platform. His website spells out his views under the "Beirut Pact" section, which was put together for his brief stint as PM in 2005. Below is what the website says, with my comments in bold italics.

"Najib Mikati and his team of economists gave a brief summary of their “Road to Beirut Pact”, a document covering all available options aimed at boosting the country’s national economy."

Given the circumstances under which he was appointed as Prime Minister, "Road to Beirut Pact"is a title that recalls Friedrich von Hayek's Road to Serfdom.

"The Pact is not, as the tam [sic] puts it, ‘sacred’, but could be revised and amended in order to make it a source of agreement between various political and economic bodies."

Some flexibility is good, but suggesting flexibility without clearly spelling out principles to anchor the discussion means that this plan is best titled Road to Nowhere.

"Experts from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already discussed and debated The Pact, later presented to the Council of Ministers and all representatives of various economic commissions."

Experts from the IMF and World Bank have discussed a lot of things. For example, they have discussed Myanmar's interest rate policy. What is more interesting is to know what they had to say.

"Premier Mikati reiterated that The Pact will be available online to all Lebanese should they wish to read it and voice an opinion. All interested parties will receive a copy of The Pact in preparation of a final document to be presented to the international committee to rally support."

There are some bullet points available in Arabic, but where is the detailed pact? Is that it?

"Premier Mikati summed up the broad headlines of The Pact:

Lebanon’s economy to be perceived as based on long term growth strategies, providing equal job opportunities to improve the standards of living"

Right. I have yet to hear any policymaker say the opposite.

"Major economic and social challenges to be addressed with their various options and conclusions
A methodology of work to comprise various work commissions implementing detailed reforms, to be later compiled in a comprehensive socio-economic program"

What does this mean? Seriously! Priorities like growth and employment are fine, but vacuous. Everyone wants them. What are the policies that you think will achieve that?

"Premier Mikati indicated that in order to achieve economic growth, concessions must be made to Cabinet by all political, economic, and social parties on a series of interrelated policies, on legislations, and on various reform measures.

He said this should encourage Cabinet to move forward, as the moment is propitious for Lebanon, with the ongoing support of the international community, following the democratic drive of the Lebanese. This would achieve long-lasting results, averting the various pressures presently exerted on Lebanon.

Lebanon, says Premier Mikati, and since the Taef Agreement, has always been subjected to calls for economic reforms. Some of these reforms were only partly implemented, with no fruitful results, while other major achievements were made in other fields. One of the major causes of not promoting drastic economic reforms was political bickering. This resulted in some economic reforms being implemented while others have not, and all for political benefits."

I still can't understand what reforms Mikati likes and what he doesn't like! For example, the Arabic section of the text mentions "assessing privatisation" (تقييم فرصة خصخصة) - but does this mean he is for or against privatisation? You can't be neutral on this one.

"Premier Miakti [sic] concluded by saying that the “Beirut Pact” should be legalized, becoming a binding agreement after ‘all partners of Lebanon and with no exception’ agree on all its points. This “Pact’ is a not measure imposed on Lebanon by a regional or an international party but a global contract, reached by consensus between all Lebanese parties. It could be labeled as ‘The Taef Accord for Economy and Growth’."

If he expects everyone to agree on all policies you can be sure that all he will achieve is meaningless. You can't run financial policy by consensus. All you can create is a series of regulatory and financial loopholes.

Everyone wants to fight corruption, and everyone wants to see economic growth, but there are differences between the parties on the nature of the policies to reach these goals. You need to take a stand, and take a side. You can't be neutral on this one too.

What's Mikati thinking?

2011-01-25T12:20:00.000-08:00

There is a lot of excellent analysis around about Hizbollah's (mis)calculations. What baffles me, though, is what is Mikati thinking?

Mikati is not a stupid man. He could not have achieved his success in business without a generous endowment of grey matter.

He is also not a man desperate for publicity. He can afford to spend his way into having a lot more publicity than he does now.

So, why does he accept to be Hizbollah's Man at the Serail? His decision is very puzzling. Here are a few thoughts on the possibilities:

1. A power trip
This is possible, but it can't fully explain his decision. He can't be seriously expecting to have much power when he does not have the support of his "constituency", the Sunnis. Power will rest with Nasrallah's armed gangs, and he will be seen as the man who sold out his own sect.

2. A belief that he can do some good
This is also possible, but this also means that he must have an agenda. He has not been very vocal about a particular agenda. He was also thrust into this position rather suddenly, and all we've heard from him is some mushy boilerplate about extending his hand to everyone. He also outrageously said that his nomination does not commit him to "anything other than protecting the Resistance."

3. He is forcibly taking the position
This is a possibility because of his alleged ties to Rami Makhluf, the profitable arm of Syria's regime. This explanation fits well with idea that there has been some sort of "regional" deal.

4. He does not expect to become Prime Minister
It is possible that he does not expect to actually become PM, but does not want to burn bridges with March 8. He can accept the nomination and then withdraw after meeting Hariri, on the grounds that he does not feel he will have enough support. In this way, he can stay "independent" without taking sides.

5. He is having a mental breakdown
Shit happens to some of the best and smartest.

Hassan Nasrallah, lest anyone forget

2011-01-25T10:03:00.000-08:00

If this link is slow, you can see it on youtube here.

Lebanon's $18,000,000,000 Question

2011-01-23T14:12:00.000-08:00

Whoever becomes Prime Minister and Finance Minister in Lebanon in the next government will face the same challenge that every previous Cabinet faced: how do you manage Lebanon's debt? The answer depends to a large extent on the degree of confidence they can instil in the markets.

The chart below shows the maturity profile of Lebanon's debt obligations. Most of Lebanon's debt is due within the next 24 months, of which $18 billion is due this year. Before anyone starts pointing fingers and blaming anyone, you should recall that this maturity profile is NOT unusual. Brazil, Turkey and other successful developing countries have similar maturity profiles. This is because countries without a long history of economic or political stability cannot issue long-term debt easily, unless they are prepared to pay very high interest rates.

Importantly, most of Lebanon's debt is not owed to any foreign government or entity. Most of this debt (85%) is owned locally. Under the circumstances, the success or failure of Lebanon's economy and currency hinges to a large extent on the ability of the government to maintain the confidence of Lebanese citizens who have - either directly or indirectly - financed this borrowing. Hariri and his team were able to instil this confidence. Can Hizbollah and their allies do the same?

The maturity profile of Lebanon's debt can lead to self-fullfilling virtuous or vicious cycles very quickly. As long as there is confidence in the system, the government will be able to roll-over the debt at reasonable interest rates. If confidence is shaken, interest rates will rise. Refinancing debt at higher interest rates will send the debt dynamics on an explosive path.

Who is in a position to help Lebanon with emergency financing if there is a shock to confidence? We have seen the international community deliver generously during previous crises. But will they deliver to an Iranian-Syrian backed government, whose raison d'être is to flaunt UN resolutions? Assistance cannot come from cash-strapped Syria or an Iran reeling under international economic sanctions.

I am not suggesting that Lebanon will necessarily have an economic crisis. This is because most of the debt is owned locally and the Central Bank has a healthy reserve cushion. But a Hizbollah-inspired government will have to try harder than a Hariri-led government to instil the confidence needed. This is in part because they have no track record in government, and in part because their past pronouncements on economic issues are reckless, especially those of the Aoun-clan. All of this means that Aoun and his prodigies, like Gibran Bassil and the economist manqué Charbel Nahhas, need to have their mouths shut for a while. A few misplaced words of their wisdom can send the country to hell.

Now is the time for March 8 to move beyond their usual "it's a Zionist conspiracy" fetish and come up with a coherent outline of their economic plans and priorities. The country needs to see this very very very soon.

Is a kinky government next?

2011-01-23T09:06:00.000-08:00

“In a country that has [someone like] Samir Geagea, I should carry a whip and use it on him every day,” Wi'am Wahhab told New TV.

....and does he need some of this?

We should be happy the Syria-Saudi mediation failed

2011-01-22T03:48:00.000-08:00

An-Nahar published the text of the document that Jumblatt said constituted the Syria-Saudi settlement. An English translation is available at YaLibnan.com. As widely reported, Hariri would have been expected to abolish cooperation with the STL, stop further funding, and withdraw the Lebanese judges. In return, Hariri would have expected a few concessions that include:

1. An end to the "false witnesses" witch-hunt and withdrawal of the Syrian arrest warrant. Promises not to attack Hariri's team.

2. Disarming of Palestinians who live outside the camps

and.....hold your breath for this one ..

3. Implementation the Taif accord.

What sort of concessions are these? Didn't we agree to implement the Taif accord 20 years ago? Wasn't the issue of Palestinian arms agreed in 2006? The new concession that Hizbollah would be making is not to pursue a legally invalid witch-hunt, and not to harass Hariri's team....and we all know how they stick to their promises.

If this is indeed the outline of the settlement proposed, it is reassuring that Hariri and his allies refused it. It speaks well of them.

The only "grand bargain" that is worth contemplating is to find a way to suspend cooperation with the STL in return for a complete and verifiable disarmament of Hizbollah. They won't accept that, of course, but neither can Lebanon afford contemplating anything short of full cooperation with the STL.

I have been critical of Hariri in the past, but this episode is making me warm up to him again.

Jumblatt's inelegant political sunset

2011-01-21T12:41:00.000-08:00

To follow up from my previous post, Jumblatt finally spoke today. He waffled. He spewed some pro-Hizbollah hot air, and said that his party, the PSP, will stand by Syria and Hizbollah.

This does not mean that his "Democratic Gathering" parliamentary block will support Hizbollah. In fact, what he said is meaningless. If we are to believe some press reports since his press conference, it is possible that 6 out of 11 members of his parliamentary block will support Hariri. Other reports suggest that 7 out of the 11 members will support Hizbollah.

It does not matter whether 5 or 7 members of the Democratic Gathering support Hizbollah. What matters is that the Democratic Gathering has split. Jumblatt's parliamentary base has crumbled.

After years of trying to be too clever by half, Jumblatt chose a path bound to displease both sides in Lebanon. Now the chicken will come home to roost.

Jumblatt is digging his own political grave

2011-01-21T04:03:00.000-08:00

Whatever the outcome of the current political standoff in Lebanon, one thing is certain: things will never be the same for Jumblatt.

I remember his speech of 14 March 2006 very well. Who would have thought that it was conceivable that Jumblatt could make a u-turn from those words? He did. It took a lot of grovelling and pleading for forgiveness. Assad made sure Jumblatt is duly humiliated.

Now, however you look at the parliamentary arithmetics, Jumblatt is kingmaker. For a normal politician in a normal country, this is a great position. But Jumblatt is not a normal politician and Lebanon is not a normal country. Jumblatt needs to follow the trend that is least costly to his community, not make decisions that will impact other communities.

There is much anticipation over what he would say this afternoon. Will he support Hizbollah or Hariri? He is reported to have told the New York Times:

“I’ve been able to slowly regain the confidence of Hezbollah and Bashar ... I’m not going to commit any more blunders. I cannot afford to.”

That's exactly right. He can't afford any more blunders. He can't afford to anger Syria or Hizbollah. But can he afford to anger the overwhelming majority of Sunnis and a large portion of the Christians?

Whatever Jumblatt does today he is bound to anger half the Lebanese population. This is not a comfortable position for a small community like the Druze. He is damned if he supports Hariri, and he is damned if he does not support Hariri.

Lebanon needs Czech assistance, not Saudi mediation

2011-01-20T09:11:00.000-08:00

The failure of Saudi mediation is hardly a surprise. It was a futile exercise from the start.

Hizbollah's track record is hardly one of compromise, and there is no reason to believe that Nasrallah will start compromising now. This is an organisation that believes it is on a divine mission, and despite having less than half the number of parliamentary seats as Hariri, expects everything to go its way.

AK wrote an excellent analysis of Hizbollah's recent moves. The best that Hizbollah can achieve is protracted civil conflict. They cannot control Lebanon.

What are the options? Another civil war would be the worst possible outcome. We've been there. It cost a lot of lives, and achieved nothing.

A division of Lebanon into cantons, under some form of confederation, would not only be less costly, but would lay the foundations of a more stable and prosperous country. I disagree with Mustapha at BeirutSpring that Lebanon can't be partitioned. The very fact that he is able to produce a map showing areas with majorities of different sects demonstrates that it can be partitioned. I would go further and argue that we need even more cantons than his map implies. The more cantons the better, because it means even smaller local governments with a greater need to be competitive.

What Lebanon needs is not Saudi mediators looking to maintain the status quo at any cost. We need the assistance of people with experience is splitting a country without spilling blood.

Wishing its adieu, not another au revoir

2011-01-12T15:46:00.000-08:00

Good riddance was my first thought at the resignation of Hizbollah’s clowns and their fashion accessories from government.

The past few years have demonstrated that it is impossible to have a functioning government that includes Hizbollah. In turn, it is also impossible for Hizbollah to function as part of a democracy or quasi-democracy. Something different needs to happen.

Lebanon’s continuous political failures, in my view, are because we exist as a nation based on a negative proposition. We are stick together, it seems, because we dislike the neighbors more than we dislike one another. We are not a nation because we share common goals and objectives. This is the worst possible premise on which to build a country.

In an ideal world, we can split up the country into cantons, and let every voter live by the consequences of his or her decision. Those that like Nasrallah should by all means live under his rule. Those that like Aoun deserve to have him. The more cantons the better! This should not create a Sunnistan, Roumistan, Marounistan, and Shiitestan. We need several of each. In my sweetest dreams, Hamra can be carved out as a hangout for Atheists. Confederations created peace and prosperity elsewhere, and I see no reason why it would not do the same in Lebanon.

Competition is a force for progress. Let cantons compete, and they will move forward. Forcibly making Lebanon stick together is only making us move to the lowest, and worst, common denominator.

Unfortunately, I think we will stick together. In a few months, we will have most of the idiots that resigned today back in another rotation of cabinet chairs. Nasrallah will still be holding press conferences to wag the same finger he uses to pick his nose.

We will see them again, and all I can think of is the last scene from Dr. Strangelove.

The UN road to decline

2010-10-15T04:25:00.000-07:00

I always thought that Lebanon’s membership in the UN Security Council was a bad idea. Sensitive issues (such as the Iran sanctions) were bound to strain our domestic politics, and the tangible benefits are few.

New research by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith of New York University, reported in the November issue of Foreign Policy, supports my view:

Relative to other countries, temporary members of the Security Council see economic growth drop 3.5 percent and score 2 percent lower on the widely used Polity ranking, which measures levels of democracy.
They also see press restrictions increase 3.1 points on Freedom House’s 100-point scale.

The reason? Security council membership is a great opportunity to practice the type of political prostitution at which the Lebanese excel.

Howls of a wounded beast

2010-10-14T08:11:00.000-07:00

While visiting Washington yesterday, I was surprised to read this in the Washington Post:

"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sought to pull Lebanon firmly into his country's fold Wednesday in a visit that underscored the growing power of Tehran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah ."

No.

Iran is not a "growing power". It has an imploding economy. Years of economic mismanagement mean that the economy cannot create enough jobs to stabilise the rapidly rising rate of unemployment. International sanctions are also working wonders in compounding the economic decline. I recommend reading this recent Wall Street Journal article, which documents the collapse of the riyal in the black market. Iran's economy is not going to converge with Zimbabwe's any time soon, but Ahmadinejad has his hands full dealing with his own unpopularity back home.

I would not be too complacent and assume that Hizbollah will decline in perfect tandem with Iran. Nasrallah runs an efficient operation that delivers the best bang for Ahmadinjad's increasingly precious buck. I doubt they will reduce funding to Hizbollah. Nonetheless, Hizbollah's main crutch is getting weaker, not stronger. The cacophony of rhetoric out of Tehran and Dahiyeh is the howling of a wounded beast, not a threat that should make us tremble.

Legalize Harry!

2010-10-01T14:03:00.000-07:00

One of the facts that struck me while reading the article on censorship laws in Lebanon on Bekhsoos.com is that Harry Belafonte is banned in Lebanon. I would not be surprised if many Lebanese don't know Harry Belafonte. His career peaked a long time ago, and he was mostly known in America.

I know his music well because it is the soundtrack of my childhood. My mother loves him. She still can't stop listening to his music and thinks he is the sexiest man that has ever lived. He is certainly sexier than my dad.

Yet, as a result of Lebanon's Kafkaesque laws, he is banned. The issue, presumably, has to do with his support for Israel. When you google his name, however, you come across such articles from Mondoweiss:

The organizers of the Toronto Declaration – No Celebration of Occupation are pleased to announce that more than 1000 people from around the world-including many Israelis-have signed on in protest of TIFF’s City-to-City Spotlight on Tel Aviv. New signatories include music and cinematic legends Harry Belafonte ....... Leading intellectual figures Noam Chomsky, Judith Butler and Anne McClintock have also recently endorsed the declaration....

I raise this example as yet more evidence of the absurdity of Lebanese censorship laws, in unlikely event that anyone is still in doubt.

Obviously, the rules are unenforceable. I'm happy to say that somewhere in downtown Beirut, as I write this, there is an 80 year old lady that is still breaking the law by singing along to this anti-Arab propaganda:

"Work all night on a drink of rum

Daylight come and me wan' go home

Stack banana till de morning come

Daylight come and me wan' go home

Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana...."

Let's hope Minister Mitri is able to get some sensible reforms done.

Minister Mitri is listening

2010-10-01T09:33:00.000-07:00

Minister Mitri has very promptly and kindly responded to my email of the letter I just posted. The following is his response:

"Thank you so much for your message. Could not but agree on enhancing transparency and on the need to overhaul censorship laws.

Tarek Mitri "

I would like to echo Mustapha at Beirut Spring: The Minister is gracious and open to suggestions. If you have concrete suggestions send them to qanun@ministryinfo.gov.lb.

Media Reform Through Transparency: Open Letter to Minister Mitri

2010-10-01T06:46:00.000-07:00

Dear Minister Mitri,

Thank you for inviting suggestions regarding the new media law, which I learned about through Beirut Spring. I am writing an open letter in order to share my views with my readers.

I have high expectations of the law because you are the one taking this initiative forward. Your track record has been laudable.

A concrete suggestion I have is to enhance the credibility of our news outlets by increasing transparency. One way to achieve this would be requiring all publications (as well as TV and Radio) that receive financial support from political parties or politicians to disclose these sums as a percentage of their budget or capital. The exact financials need not be disclosed, as the ratio is sufficient for readers to be able to gauge the extent to which a publication is being supported either through a subsidy or an equity stake. This disclosure should be done in every issue.

These types of disclosures are standard practice in the publications of investment banks, when they publish research on an company and may have a conflict of interests. While it is true that the political affiliation of most papers is somehow "known," for some it is not so clear. Full disclosures are a useful daily reminder to readers.

Your previous positions on censorship are commendable. I have in mind, for example, your position on the screening of Waltz with Bashir. This is not because such censorship is both wrong and unenforceable, but in this particular case it is helping to perpetuate dishonesty about our own history (please see my post about Sabra and Shatila).

I hope the new media law will be an opportunity to completely overhaul the censorship laws. A recent article on Bekhsoos.com, a gay Arab website highlights some of the Kafkaesque outcomes of our current rules: even the Australian comedy Priscilla Queen of the Desert is banned because of homosexuality!

Equally troubling is the number of movies that remain banned because of "Sympathy for Jews." All I can say about this one is to suggest a look at Facebook. You will find that the Beirut Maghen Abraham Synagogue, which will soon re-open, already has more fans than Michel Aoun. It's comforting to think that the Lebanese people are more mature than the Lebanese laws!

The H.L. Mencken Guide to Hezbollah Politics

2010-09-28T07:28:00.000-07:00

Issue	What did Mencken say?
Jamil Sayyed	It is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man.
Michel Aoun	Love is the triumph of imagination over intelligence.
Politicization of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon	It is hard to believe that a man is telling the truth when you know that you would lie if you were in his place.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon	Injustice is relatively easy to bear; what stings is justice.
Supporting Lebanese Government Institutions.	Platitude: an idea (a) that is admitted to be true by everyone, and (b) that is not true.
Hassan Nasrallah	The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.
Nasrallah speaking to supporters only via CCTV	I never lecture, not because I am shy or a bad speaker, but simply because I detest the sort of people who go to lectures and don't want to meet them.
“Martyrdom”	To die for an idea; it is unquestionably noble. But how much nobler it would be if men died for ideas that were true!
“False Witnesses”	The penalty for laughing in a courtroom is six months in jail; if it were not for this penalty, the jury would never hear the evidence.
Nawaf Moussawi	The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
“The Zionists did it”!	The capacity of human beings to bore one another seems to be vastly greater than that of any other animal.

Our Man in Damascus

2010-09-27T12:23:00.000-07:00

Ambassador Michel Khoury must be busy, but not intellectually challenged these days. Just look at the daily number of politicians heading to chat with their Syrian counterparts. His days must now be filled entirely with protocol inconsequentialities, and no policy substance.

Luckily, there is a perfect job opening. The United Nations will soon appoint a Space Ambassador for Extraterrestrial Contact Affairs. That's right. This will be the Chief Dude to go to if Aliens arrive and want to chat. While he waits for the Aliens to arrive, Ambassador Khoury can at least entertain himself with a good book, rather than negotiating seating arrangements at the Tishreen Palace.

But Ambassador Khoury needs to hurry up, as a Malaysian Astrophysicist might soon get the job.

The architecture of delusions* or The Sursock Rave

2010-09-27T07:58:00.000-07:00

I am intrigued by the flurry of news stories and blogs on the issue of preserving Beirut’s architectural heritage. Some of them are thoughtful, some of them are romantic. While, it is sad to see some areas of Beirut change from quaint homes to high-rise eyesores, we also need to recognize this phenomenon for what it is: this is the price of progress. Progress is good.

Architecture changes by necessity
There aren't many cities that have managed to maintain their quaint traditional character over time, while simultaneously growing their economy. The examples are really few. One can think of the medieval small cities of Central Europe, such as Zurich. But the population of Zurich is the same as that of the Dahiyeh, and for much of its history it was difficult for outsiders to own property. There is also the almost feudal London, where a few families own large swaths of the city, and new property “owners” are actually buying a lease for 99 years.

The truth is that many Beirut old homes are simply uneconomical. This reality should be lost on no-one, especially the founder of the Association for the Protection of Lebanese Heritage, Lady Yvonne Sursock Cochrane herself. She rents out her own house as a venue for parties and weddings.

Most of Beirut’s old houses, though, are not as lavish as the Sursock house, and cannot be used for such purposes (even if there is a need for more wedding party venues!). They are too expensive to turn into restaurants, and awkward to transform into viable residential or commercial space. A friend recently tried very hard to find an old property that could be transformed into a hostel, but the mathematics made it an unattractive proposition.

Property rights are paramount
This is not to suggest that Beirut's old architecture is doomed. It is not. Solidere has done a laudable job at preserving what is possible from the rubble of our civil war. Other creative architects have also helped incorporate façades or elements of old buildings into new structures. But it is quixotic to demonstrate and light candles in Gemmayze over a few old buildings. Some of them are beautiful, some are dumps. But who is to decide, let alone tell an owner that he/she cannot use their property to its maximum value? Maybe Gemmayze can join Solidere, or follow its example?

Luddites of aristocracy?
I respect the intentions of the demonstrators, and I think that some economically sensible solutions can be found. However, I am perplexed by the asinine proclamations of one of the leaders of this movement, Lady Sursock Cochrane. She raves:

"Beirut used to be a city of gorgeous mansions and gardens and now it has become a boring heap of high-rises and construction projects"

Huh? Are we talking about the same city? Rue Sursock used to have a some gorgeous mansions, and a few crass homes. There were also a lot of crappy stone houses in Beirut, as well as quite a few chicken and goats. Beirut has happily changed beyond recognition, and a lot of the change has been for the better.

Most of her statements are in fact at best delusional, but this sort of stuff strangely seems to work for some reporters such as Tyler Brûlé. In a revealing interview about Beirut architecture she did for Monocle, she also claimed that Lebanon has gone from bad to worse since the Ottomans (Anyone remember reading about the famine that killed a fourth of the population?). She also blamed the French for ruining industry in the mountains, thereby causing villagers to move to Beirut (actually, the main industry in the mountains, silk, went belly-up after the development of cheaper technologies in Japan). She concludes by asserting that the only hope for Lebanon's future is the formation of a confederation with Syria (I would l-o-v-e to see the results of a referendum on this one). In Britain, she would be known as a Luddite, or Prince Charles.

If Lady Sursock-Cochrane is uncomfortable with all this change, I would recommend that she take solace in the early 19 century words of Lord Byron: "A man of eighty has outlived probably two [new schools] of architecture...."

Activists for Beirut architecture need a more serious spokesperson.

Treat the problem, not the symptom
The solution cannot be found in isolation. Halting the demolition of an old building is a short term palliative, but in the medium term economic realities will always win.

The real solution to the real estate market problem can only be found in addressing its root causes: the perverse incentives created by onerous regulations in some areas, and the lack of regulation in others. The lack of serious efforts in urban planning has increased pressures on a handful of areas. Our Byzantine inheritance laws have created some insurmountable problems, leaving some prime properties in a derelict state. Then there are the rental laws, zoning laws....etc...etc. It's good to hear that the Ministry of Culture has taken notice over some of these issues, but a good place to start is reforming existing laws, rather than introducing new ones. Fewer laws will also mean fewer opportunities for corruption.

*With apologies to Alain de Botton.

Update Regarding Minister Nahass's participation in ITU Conference

2010-09-27T04:52:00.000-07:00

This is to follow up from my two postings on Minister Nahass's participation in the ITU Conference in Mexico next month.

I am happy to say that Minister Nahass has now informed the ITU to amend the Lebanese delegate list, and remove the names of his family members.

I wish Minister Nahass a very successful trip. I also hope he comes back from Mexico with a re-invigorated enthusiasm for reforming and privatising the Telecom sector.

Questions to Minister Nahass

2010-09-26T09:20:00.000-07:00

After seeing some discussions of the Nahass family vacation/travesty in Mexico, I want to clarify my views, so that there is no misunderstanding:

I don't think that an anonymous person commenting on my blog under the name of Mayasa and giving me a random phone number of a purported travel agent is sufficient to quell doubts in my mind over whether or not our Telecom Minister's trip to Mexico involves corrupt financial practices. I don't know.

More importantly, I don't even care to know whether public funds are being used for a family vacation or not. If it is tant pis, if it is not tant mieux. There is enough corruption in the country that a couple of airline tickets are a drop in the bucket. I realise this is a cavalier attitude, but this is only because I think there are bigger issues at stake.

The real questions to my mind are:

1. On what grounds does our esteemed Minister believe his wife and daughters make appropriate representatives of the country at this particular conference?

2. What sort of message does our esteemed Minister believe he is sending to the world by registering his family as representatives of the Ministry of Telecommunications?

3. Does our esteemed Minister believe that representatives of other countries will take Lebanon's representation seriously when they see the laundry list of Nahass names?

I think it is an insult to all conference participants that our minister decides to turn Lebanon's delegation into a family reunion. At best it betrays an astonishing lack of professionalism, and at worse it shows that he does not take other delegates seriously. This is what is truly shameful. Other delegates I have talked to are already shocked!

Why is our esteemed Minister doing this? Does he believe that the official receptions can be efficiently turned into cheap family picnics? Or is he concerned that no one from any other delegation is going to talk to him and he does not want to get lonely?

I will monitor any updates of the delegates list, and will update you if the Minister removes his family members' names from the list.

Update: If you came here through a direct link, please see this.

Wisdom, continued

2010-09-26T06:42:00.000-07:00

This week's selection of quotables from the best and brightest political minds of the Middle East:

"the Zionist regime is a very small entity on the map and doesn't really factor into our decisions." Mahmoud Ahmadinajad speaking to reporters in New York over a breakfast of (presumably Halal) Lox and Bagels

"Iran and Lebanon enjoy very good ties … We support Lebanon's unity and its advancement," Mahmoud Ahmadinajad

"And why not, I would support this." Walid Jumblatt, in an interview with Michael Young, on the possibility of Syrian troops coming back to Lebanon

“We stress that protecting the state would be done through the protection of its institutions" Hizbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah

"Just like many of the arrest warrants, they have only come into force after a long time," unnamed "Prominent" lawmaker in reference to an arrest warrant against Jamil Sayyed, as reported by Naharnet

"We are keen to protect Lebanon from this strife and we will not allow the aims of the July war to be passed through the international tribunal, which Israel is banking on to compensate for its 2006 defeat," Hizbollah's Sheikh Nabil Qaouq

"If the indictment was issued as an accusation against Hizbullah, that would mean that an international decision was taken to ignite Sunni-Shiite war in the country," MP Suleiman Franjieh

“Prime Minister [Saad Hariri]’s approval to hold direct negotiations [between the Palestinians and] Israel does not reflect Lebanon’s official position [on the issue].” MP Ali Fayyad

"[Any group in Lebanon that] abides by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) [pending] indictment will be dealt with on the basis that it is one of the tools of US-Israeli aggression." Hizbollah MP Moussawi

Michel Aoun was especially prolific with his words of wisdom this week:

"[Jamil Sayyed's] cause is the biggest case of this century."

“a Mideast without Christians would be a world controlled by evil...” (NB. Is this guy now implying that his allies, Hizbollah, are evil?)

"spread the culture of openness and not intimidation." in a letter lecturing the Pope

"...let no one ask us to remain calm. We are very calm"

Finally, I really could not decide which of the following is the Most Delusional Statement of the Week:

“[Western states] want to terminate the Resistance that is confronting Israel to naturalize [Palestinian refugees in Lebanon]" Michel Aoun

"That some segments within the U.S. government orchestrated the attack to reverse the declining American economy and its grips on the Middle East in order also to save the Zionist regime. The majority of the American people as well as other nations and politicians agree with this view." Mahmoud Ahamadinajad on 9/11

"the Lebanese have learned from their past experience -- that they are one people that will not divide no matter what.....Lebanese national unity is the strength of the Lebanese society," Former PM Salim Hoss
(h/t A Purple Monkey for spotting Hoss)

How many Nahass's does it take to make a phone call?

2010-09-24T10:19:00.000-07:00

Here is how our tax Liras are at work:

Lebanon is participating in the International Telecommunication Union Plenipotentiary Conference in Guadelajara, Mexico next month. Wonderful!

Glancing at the list of participants, I found the following numbers for official (government) delegates instructive:

Finland, home of Nokia: 8

Kuwait, home of Zain (MTC): 6

Germany, Europe's largest economy: 8

Egypt, the Middle East's most populous country: 7

Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest economy: 10

Lebanon: 12

Ah, but I wish that's all that is odd about the list! Here are four names from the Lebanese delegates list:

Anyone notice a pattern here? According to his Facebook "fan" page (he has 432 fans), Magida must be his wife. I hear that Zeina is his daughter. I have no clue who is Yousra, but let us give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she is a telecom prodigy. Now it is fine if the Minister is taking the family for a trip to Mexico at his own expense. But is our government actually paying for these "official delegates"? I did not go carefully through the names of every single delegation, but from what I did see, no other Minister has his wife registered as a delegate.

For those of you that don't speak Arabic, our Telecommunication Minister's name (Nahass) actually means Coppersmith. I cannot help but wonder when we will be upgrading those old copper wires to some fibre optics.

UPDATE: Please click on comments section to view remarks from someone who may be connected to the Minister, and my follow-up comments.

UPDATE 2: If you came here through a direct link, please read this: Questions to Minister Nahass.

Assad: The Opera, Now playing at a theatre near you

2010-09-21T08:03:00.000-07:00

Barack Obama's enthusiasm for peace in the Middle East has lead him into repeating the same mistakes as many of his predecessors. In due course, he will reach the same conclusions for himself: the Assad regime cannot be co-opted with promises of normalised relations, nor pried away from its soul-mate Iran.

Syria has a regime with no principles or ideology other than self-perpetuation. It can only survive by propagating one conspiracy theory after another, and a culture of permanent distrust. Engagement is bound to yield no results because they need enemies to survive. Without enemies to blame for their failures, the regime will need to answer the demands of its own population for greater freedoms. They can't afford to have many friends. Anyone serious about understanding the prospects of engagement with the Assad regime should first look at the track record of this "young reformer." I recommend starting with an excellent recent survey of his years in office by Human Rights Watch - Syria: A Wasted Decade.

Saudi Arabia has hopped wholeheartedly on the Obama bandwagon. King Abdullah's consequent rapprochement with Assad has now led him into pushing Hariri into his own ill-timed and ill-conceived rapprochement with Syria, but this in turn led the Saudis into The Perfect Syrian Trap. Syria promised Saudi Arabia that it will respect Lebanese sovereignty. It started to pretend to be distancing itself from Hizbollah, by staging a shoot-out involving its own dispensable agents Al-Ahbash. Hizbollah increased their threats against the Lebanese state. Sunni-Shiite tensions are rising, and Saudi Arabia has started getting alarmed about what it perceives as a threat to its pet cause - the Sunnis. Saudi Arabia is now itself dependent on Syria to ensure stability in Lebanon and the security of the Sunnis. What other choice do the Saudis have? There is nothing in recent statements from Hizbollah to suggest room for reconciliation over anything.

Meanwhile in Damascus, Assad serenades Lebanese politicians with Bizet's Habanera:

L'amour est enfant de Bohème,

il n'a jamais, jamais connu de loi;

si tu ne m'aimes pas, je t'aime

si je t'aime, prends garde à toi!

Unfortunately for Lebanon's few scrambling democrats, the White House seems to be occupied by a Chamberlain, not a Kennedy. As the Lebanese stare into the abyss, however, they should remember they have no one to blame other than themselves. We had free and fair elections. Yet, in a show of political immaturity eclipsing Argentina's, we chose not to hold our elected representatives accountable for anything at all. Nary a pipsqueak complains in Parliament, and MPs unhappy with the state of affairs simply pack-up and go to Paris.

The Venn Diagram Guide to Hassan Nasrallah

2010-09-20T09:14:00.000-07:00

The Hassan Nasrallah view of the world

Reality

Wisdom, Part II

2010-09-19T10:25:00.000-07:00

This week's quotables from the Middle East's finest political minds:

"Members of the Liberation and Development bloc avoid getting involved in debates with other politicians" MP Ali Khreis

"the Israeli war machine has started to take new security and media faces in a bid to ignite civil strife in Lebanon through the machinations the enemy depends on after it became incompetent in the battlefield before the Resistance's might." Hizbollah MP Hasan Fadlallah

"But if we were dealing politely, we would tell him (Jamil Sayyed) that if someone steps on our foot we shall step on his neck,” Unnamed Senior Police Officer quoted by Al-Diyar

“Monkeys are running the country.” Former head of Lebanon’s General Security Jamil Sayyed

"I demand citizens not to obey the Police Intelligence Bureau because it is an armed gang" Generalissimo Michel Aoun

"We are carrying out an intellectual revolution against corruption," Generalissimo Michel Aoun

"[Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir] is our first and last religious reference," Suleiman Frangieh in reference to the man he thought was getting horny while meeting women activists.

Jumblatt called on his supporters to respect the State and the law "at least in our areas."

"Sayyed and Hizbullah abide by the law … We are very keen on the state..." Hizbollah sources to Al-Sharq Al-Awsat

"My farms rice crop has never been better because of the rains. Almost ready now, huge robust grain practically no canal water was required" Salmaan Taseer, governor of Pakistan's Punjab province on Twitter

"why are Palestinians making big fuss about settlements now when we've been building settlements since Oslo began in 1993" Israeli government spokesman on Twitter

Finally, the deepest insight of the week:

"Hizbullah should abide by the rule of law otherwise we will reach lawlessness." Mustaqbal bloc MP Serge Toursarkissian

With friends like these....

2010-09-18T04:28:00.000-07:00

A friend came to visit wearing this T-Shirt.

Inconvenient Truths: Remembering Sabra and Shatila

2010-09-17T16:29:00.000-07:00

I realise that what I have to say is unpopular. Since I don't particularly care about being popular, I say it: on a day like this I have more respect for Israel than for Lebanon. They may have treated the Palestinians more brutally, but they have been more honest about it.

1. The terrible reality: I still remember exactly what happened when the news broke that hundreds of unarmed Palestinian civilians were massacred in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps between 16 and 18 September 1982. I was in London, where I took refuge from Israel's invasion of Lebanon. I was eating ice cream and watching TV. I was proudly wearing my Bachir Gemayel T-Shirt. I was also wearing a Phalangist button-pin, complete with the Cedar and "God-The Nation-The Family" slogan. I flinched and turned off the TV. I had spent 4 days mourning the assassination of my hero, Bachir, and did not want to hear more bad news. I was ready for something different. Grace Kelly died the same day as Bachir, and there was a celebration of the life of Princess Grace taking place near Greek Street. For a sexually-charged 18 year old, Soho is always a priority. I walked to Soho and had a few drinks. I had sex in a public bathroom with an Afrikaner whose name I did not know, and walked back home feeling very happy.

I did not think about the Palestinians at all, even though it was "my party" that massacred them. Somewhere in my head, I blamed it on the Israelis. This is the easy and convenient Lebano-Pavlovian reaction to anything gone wrong. I was, of course, too young to understand that I was part of a fascist movement, let alone understand what fascism was about. These were days of blind nationalism. I did not understand that slogans like "God-The Nation-The Family" were full of terrible ideas, regardless of whether you believe in a god or not. Freedom or Liberty are not part of the party slogan.

2. The ease of forgetting: We have forgotten how many Palestinians were massacred on that day. The Israelis claimed precisely 460. The Palestinians claimed equally precisely 3500. But the truth that will always haunt us is that we didn't care to find out for ourselves. We were not like the Nazis. We did not keep records. Shortly after the war ended, we appointed the perpetrator of the massacre, Elie Hobeika, as Minister for Social Affairs.

3. Truth and Reconciliation: We can learn some good tricks from the Afrikaners. We could follow some of the steps of South Africa's post-Apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Our high school history books make a giant leap of vacuous prose from our 1943 Independence to the 1991 Taif Accord. We still can't agree on what exactly happened in between. "History is written by the victors" wrote Winston Churchill. We emerged from civil war with a slogan of exhaustion: "No victor, no vanquished." How do we write our history? We don't know.

The curious case of Lebanon's Daily Star

2010-09-15T08:45:00.000-07:00

The fact that Lebanon's Daily Star has been a sinking ship for some time comes as little surprise to anyone who watched their return as The Undead from a brush with bankruptcy last year. It is a shame. As Lebanon's only English language daily, the Daily Star has a great market position in the language of choice of many Lebanese and expatriates.

Their reporting ability is limited, and non-Lebanese news is based mostly on a simple aggregation of newswires. That could be a viable business model. Many people still prefer the romance of a Broadsheet with their morning coffee over Google Reader. The problems arise when they express opinions.

I was outraged last week by their Editorial over the Koran-burning brouhaha. Today's editorial is even more outrageous. "Hariri and Sayyed are both wrong," opines Jamil Mroue:

"Like any other Lebanese citizen, Sayyed now has a right to seek legal recourse if he was in fact detained for four years without charge solely on the basis of what he has termed “crimes of slander.” The former general may have exceeded this right by making unbecoming statements that could constitute slander or incitement, but he remains entitled to use any and every legal means available to seek out reparation. Likewise, Hariri is entitled to see his father’s killers brought to justice – just as the premier maintains the right to lodge legal action against anyone, including Sayyed, who may have slandered him by unfairly accusing him of manipulating the investigation into the assassination.

"But the fact that both men have sought justice outside the umbrella of Lebanese courts – Sayyed through a lawsuit in Damascus and Hariri through an international tribunal – illustrates how little faith both men have in the very judiciary that they have done so little to support. And if two men with such a high degree of access to power have come to such conclusions, what does that say about the ability of the average citizen to achieve justice in the Lebanese courts?"

Comparing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in the Hague with Sayyed's lawsuit in Damascus is bizarre to anyone with an IQ over "Borderline Deficiency". I don't think the Daily Star is run by idiots, or by people with deficient English language skills. Something else is at play here. What could it be? The clues lie in Mroue's own words: describing Sayyed's vitriol as "unbecoming statements that could constitute slander or incitement."

"Unbecoming....that could "? The man is reported to have said:

"Monkeys are running the country"

"It's not enough for Hariri to admit that he erred, he has to pay the price of his mistakes"

"I swear on my honour that I [will] take.. [my rights] with my own hand,”
He called on the people to “revolt against authority and attack officials in their houses”

This could not "potentially constitute...incitement." This is incitement. Arguing otherwise is at best a reflection of intellectual sloth, and at worse outright dishonesty.

The problem with the Daily Star seems to be that they are so desperate to avoid losing more readers, that they have decided to stick to what they believe are "balanced" views, fearful of upsetting any reader. The result is that their Editorials are largely piffle that is unlikely to please any reader.

I guess it is time to remove the Daily Star Editorials RSS feed from my Google Reader.

Wisdom

2010-09-12T11:30:00.000-07:00

This week's quotables from the Middle East's finest political minds:

"I like to retaliate by burning a book that you Americans hold dear, but the only book you care about is Facebook." - Mahmoud Ahmadinajad

The burning of Korans is "orchestrated by the Zionist regime after being defeated in its efforts against Muslims and the Islamic world." - Iran Foreign Minister Mottaki

No one can use "force or trickery to compel Hizbollah to accept certain facts that would change the course of things" - MP Mohammed Raad

The Internal Security Force is an “illegitimate branch that has no law, kidnaps people for months and spreads rumors about them.” - "Generalissimo" Michel Aoun in reference to the arrest of one of his men who confessed to spying for Israel

“Justice and the truth are important, but the stability of the country is more important.” Walid Jumblatt, in a statement to Bernard Kouchner reported by Al-Hayat

MP Sami Gemayel deserves "crucifixion on a pole in the Pride and Dignity Square." - Hizbollah website statement

"After all you have done to Syria, Bashar Assad hugged you rather than hanging you to death." - Jamil Sayyed on Saad Hariri

...and finally, the understatement of the week:

“I understand that Hariri [wants to develop] the best relations with Syria.” - Dory Chamoun

What do Moslems, Jews and Fags have in common?

2010-09-10T07:06:00.000-07:00

The Westboro Baptist Church announced on its infamous God Hates Fags website that they will burn copies of the Koran as well as US Flags tomorrow, and called Pastor Terry Jones a "false Prophet."

For those of you unfamiliar with the WBC, these are the same people that claimed that 9/11 was a "gift from God" and punishment for sodomy. They are the same guys that said of the Holocaust Memorial in DC: "American taxpayers are financing this unholy monument to Jewish mendacity and greed and to filthy fag lust." They are the same people who famously picketed the funeral of "Matthew Shepard," a gay victim of a hate crime, saying he will burn in hell.

Their statement, which argues that the only "job" left for Moslems is to kill the Jews (pdf), concludes with:

"God hates Doomed america! God hates Muslims! We will burn your Koran and bloody-Doomed-american-fag-flag (whore Old Glory) to remind you it’s so!"

Well, as an Atheist Fag I am not unhappy with this event. Seriously. No statement from Obama or Clinton or FBI visit is going to change their mind. I hope that no Administration official humiliates him/herself by trying. Meanwhile, I do hope this event gets a lot of publicity, and that Moslems in the Middle East who are outraged by the Koran-burning take note that their holy book is burning along with the American Flag and, much more importantly, no American law or official can stop this from happening. This is exactly why America is so admirable.

The Lebanonisation of US politics

2010-09-10T03:35:00.000-07:00

It was sad to read this morning that Pastor Terry Jones has decided to "temporarily halt" his plans to burn Korans in Florida. This is not because I wanted to see Korans burned, but because I am saddened by the real reason they are not being burned.

There is much confusion about what happened yesterday. First, the Pastor said that he reached a quid pro quo deal with Imam Musri that involves a halt to the "Ground Zero" mosque in New York. Apparently, this was a "sign from God" that the Pastor was waiting for. Then it immediately emerged that there is no such deal. Pastor Jones said that Imam Musri lied to him. Imam Musri said that the Pastor lied to save face.

The quid pro quo link between burning the Koran and building a mosque was not immediately obvious to a mediocre mind like mine. However, it was obvious to the beautiful mind of Sarah Palin, who wrote on her Facebook page:

"People have a constitutional right to burn a Qur'an if they want to, but doing so is insensitive and an unnecessary provocation – much like building a mosque at Ground Zero"

Whatever transpired between the Imam and the Pastor is irrelevant. What is relevant is that the Pastor has nonetheless decided to stick to his decision not to burn Korans tomorrow, even though there is no deal. This implies that he has caved into to the pressure from various branches of government, which included statements from Obama, Clinton, Eric Holder, Robert Gates, Gen. Petraeus, as well as several visits by the FBI.

This is a shameful episode for US politics. It reminds me of the recent decision by some Moslem Lebanese TV stations to stop airing a mini-series about the life of Christ, after some churchmen were offended. As I argued in a previous post, the only victim of all of this is freedom of expression.

It is unfortunate for Moslems that none of their leaders have the foresight, creativity or courage of some Moslem commentators. It is very sad to see US politicians acting like their Lebanese counterparts.

Farewell, March 14

2010-09-09T15:10:00.000-07:00

I stopped using 1403 as the pin code for my ATM card this week.

I feel it is pointless to pretend that the March 14 Alliance still exists. Today, Fares Soueid confirmed that I am right:

“We were not upset with Hariri’s statements, but we are assessing the circumstances that led him to voice such remarks,”

So, basically he is saying that the March 14 Alliance, in which the Prime Minister's party is a cornerstone, had no idea that the PM is about to make a statement turning around a key policy of the last 5 years. Worse still, Soueid is saying that they don't even have an idea of what the PM is thinking!

Clearly, there is no substantive policy discussion within the party alliance. What exactly is the point of the alliance then, and why should we continue to make-believe?

Learning the wrong lessons from 9/11

2010-09-08T09:58:00.000-07:00

It is sad that media attention has helped cast the shadow of a small, irrelevant church in Florida over the remembrance of the terrorist attacks of 9/11 this year.

The plan by the curiously named Dove World Outreach Center to burn copies of the Koran is being roundly denounced across the US. Hillary Clinton finds it "disgraceful." Attorney General Eric Holder finds it "idiotic and dangerous." General Petraeus too finds it "dangerous," and hints darkly at how this might complicate his troops' mission in Afghanistan.

In the Middle East, the press is predictably aghast. Jamil Mroue of Lebanon's Daily Star, a reliable indicator of the average thought process, writes in his editorial "Koran burners threaten the US":

"The planned action of the church could in the end threaten the achievements – some of them universal in their reach – of US civilization. This incident highlights the treacherous balancing act that the branches of government must perform in building and maintaining a society of free citizens who do not destroy one another."

He goes on to talk about averting the planned burning, followed by some silly statements on the US "record of aggression."

Wow. Dude. Chill out!

It is hard to know who is worse: Pastor Terry Jones who is burning the Koran, or those condemning the burning and would rather see freedom of expression stifled for the sake of political expediency.

It is facile to argue that 9/11 was just an attack on the US. If it was about US power, the attacks would have simply focussed on the Pentagon and (if the high-jackers of United 93 had succeeded) elsewhere in Washington. The attack on the World Trade Center was an attack on a conspicuous representation of the way of life of the most advanced society in the world. It was an attack on the values of the Enlightenment that made that society as enviable as it is, by a gang that would rather see civilisation go back 1000 years, rather than move forward by 1.

Mr. Mroue is dead wrong to talk about the "precipice of a clash of civilisations." It is not about a clash between two civilisations. It is about a clash between civilisation and anti-civilisation.

The only acceptable commemoration of 9/11 is to uphold the very values that were targeted by the attacks. Freedom of expression, however irritating, is sacrosanct. Burning the Koran harms no one. No Molsem will be harmed. No Moslem will have his right to worship abridged in any way. No one should really care if a bunch of pyromaniacs in Florida burn a few books. This is all absurd.

Moslems that are offended by Pastor Jones, and believe in freedom, should consider the words often attributed to Voltaire: I disagree with what you say, but will defend to death your right to say it. A good slap in the face of Pastor Jones would be for Moslem organisations to speak in defence of his right to burn the Koran. If it becomes a trend, "smart-money" Moslems might consider investing in a Koran-printing business....

When government by auto-pilot is better than active government

2010-09-08T05:19:00.000-07:00

Finance Minister Rayya al-Hassan submitted the 2011 budget law proposal to the cabinet yesterday.

This would be good news, in normal circumstances...after all 2011 is 3 months away. But this is Lebanon, which is rarely normal, and the event did raise some justified skepticism. After months of bickering, the 2010 budget proposal was referred to Parliament by the President last month!

Lebanon was very lucky to have spent most of this year on auto-pilot based on last year's budget. To understand why, you need to look no further than the Ministry of Finance's website:

In a year when economic growth has been strong, increasing tax revenue, Lebanon agreed on a budget that would increase spending even faster. While sitting on top of one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, the budget proposes a Primary Deficit, which will imply a further increase in the debt burden.

The environment of low interest rates and rapid growth enjoyed by Lebanon this year, is only partly due to skill in economic management. The truth is that Lebanon was more lucky than good: lower global interest rates and a primary surplus allowed this happen. If the budget had been approved early in the year, Lebanon could only have enjoyed its current level of economic growth if it had been more lucky than bad.

I do not pin the blame on the Ministry of Finance. The Cabinet has shown itself throughly incapable of agreeing on anything other than the lowest common denominator. In economic terms, this invariably means increasing spending for this Ministry or that, but few meaningful restraints anywhere. To be sure, the country needs to increase spending in some areas, but it can't afford to do so without some serious cuts elsewhere. Most of us can think of entire government departments that can (and should be) shut down without any loss of service or convenience to anyone.

This is an instance where no agreement by the Cabinet would have been far better than agreement.

Bubble, Bubble, here comes trouble...

2010-09-07T02:45:00.000-07:00

A story carried by Bloomberg today notes that Beirut is the 10th most expensive city in the world for expat housing:

"The city is ahead of Paris, Abu Dhabi, Amsterdam, Geneva and Rio de Janeiro and behind Singapore, Osaka, New York City, Moscow, Hong Kong and London...."

Actually, the phenomenon is not just for expat housing. I suspect that when average home prices are compared to average incomes in Lebanon, US sub-prime buyers would appear financially prudent.

Is civil war inevitable?

2010-09-06T07:47:00.000-07:00

It is difficult to explain Hariri's statement to Al-Sharq Al-Awsat today simply in the context of "a new page in relations with Syria":

"At a certain stage we made mistakes. We accused Syria of assassinating the martyred premier, and this was a political accusation."

There certainly wasn't a dearth of evidence pointing to Syria. By asserting it was a political accusation, Hariri is playing into the hands of those (like Hizbollah) who are attempting to discredit the entire investigation. He then says:

“ There are people who misled the investigation, and they have caused harm to Syria and Lebanon…these false witnesses ruined the relationship between the two countries, and politicized the assassination”

But an early part of the investigation included statements from a large number of Lebanese politicians who recounted their understanding of the last meeting between Assad and Rafiq Hariri. Is Saad Hariri saying his allies were lying and were all involved in a political ambush of Syria?

Syria does not appear to be publicly pressuring Hariri into an apology, judging from the number of meetings he has had with Assad over the past year. At first glance, the timing and nature of this statement don't make any sense, unless it is motivated by something else. My gut feeling is that there are two explanations (that are not mutually exclusive):

1. The statement was somehow scripted in Riyadh and little thought was invested into it by Hariri's office in Beirut. Indeed, I find it interesting that Hariri's office in Beirut had no comment on the statement, according to the Huffington Post.

2. Hariri fears the risk of civil war are very high, and good relations with Syria are necessary to protect the Sunnis from an impending showdown with Hizbollah.

Judging from the political rhetoric since the Burj Abi-Haidar clashes, the second explanation appears most likely. As one friend presciently put it 2 years ago: "Hizbollah and the Sunnis will go to war. Hizbollah will beat the shit out of the Sunnis, who will have no choice but to cry to Damascus for help. Beirutis will end up welcoming Syrian troops with flowers."

I hope that I'm very very wrong, and we never see that nightmare again.

Champions of Democracy

2010-09-03T10:53:00.000-07:00

While I was in Beirut a few days ago, I somehow missed this interesting and unusually good piece of news about the country. The Lebanese Interior Minister received an award from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. In this context, Former President Jimmy Carter said:

"I have supervised more than 83 elections in 83 countries worldwide but the best I have seen were in Lebanon [in 2009]."

I wonder what he thinks of the candidates, though.

Insidious politics of hate

2010-09-03T10:44:00.000-07:00

Iran and Hizbollah are in full swing today marking "Al-Quds/Jerusalem Day." A gesture of support to the Palestinians? No. Think again. For those of you unfamiliar with its history, Al-Quds day is an annual event on the last Friday of Ramadan, established by Khomeini in 1979:

"I invite Muslims all over the globe to consecrate the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan as Al-Quds Day and to proclaim the international solidarity of Muslims in support of the legitimate rights of the Muslim people of Palestine."

Note that non-Muslim Palestinians have been conveniently excluded from the Grand Ayatollah's support. Presumably such infidels don't deserve support. If his intention was to express support for Palestine at all, there is no reason why Khomeini could not have chosen to mark the same day as all Palestinians do (namely Nakba Day). This day is different. It is simply about anti-Zionism. In other words, this day is not for something, it is just against something. It is a bit like the political views of a "Facebook friend" of mine:

This fellow is not unique. I never bothered to ask him what he actually believes in, as opposed to what he doesn't believe in -- it would be a futile exercise.

To mark this fine occasion, Khamenei was busy on Twitter with his idea of constructive support to Palestinians precisely at the time they are negotiating in Washington:

"Israel Is A Hideous Entity In the Middle East Which Will Undoubtedly Be Annihilated"

Nasrallah, meanwhile, is pretending to be a sage with words about the "big picture", namely that everything somehow involves - you guessed it - a Zionist and American conspiracy:

"The American and Zionist intelligence [agencies] are connected with all the suicide operations that targeted the Iraqis."

"What happened in Bourj Abi Haidar is pure loss..... This was an individual incident that developed in a regrettable way and has no background. Whoever considered the incident to be an expression of an Iranian-Syrian dispute is frustrated. They are little tools in the failed American project."

...and, of course, the Special Tribunal is also a conspiracy targeting the "Resistance." etc etc.....

I suppose he is hoping for an end like Mel Gibson's Conspiracy Theory: if he keeps seeing a conspiracy in everything for long enough, at some point he may actually stumble upon one, in which case he will feel vindicated.

A central bank that looks forward to high inflation?

2010-08-18T09:01:00.000-07:00

I should thank Mustapha at BeirutSpring.com for drawing attention to an article published by the Ludwig von Mises Institute that praises Riad Salameh's skills as Lebanon's central banker. Mises was the professor and mentor of my all-time hero: Friedrich von Hayek. You can imagine my excitement as I clicked on the link.

Mustapha is a polite, glass-is-half-full kind of guy. For the positive interpretation, read his blog. I'm not an optimist (and only occasionally polite):

There is a sophomoric analysis of the Lebanese banking system that puzzlingly talks about banks reserve ratios, lending practices, as well as the debt, but where the author seems totally oblivious to the fact that much of the debt is owned by the banks! He also seems oblivious to the fact that banks were effectively forced to buy the debt on more than one occasion at below-market rates.

These glaring oversights aside, the author presents a startling quote from the Governor, which he suggests is prescient, though "unconventional":

"The future expectations of inflation are going to diminish the real value of [the public] debt, which is stated today at around $48 billion. And the present value or the real value of that debt will look less important in the next four or five years, as the purchasing power of currency is going to be depleted worldwide."

!!!!!!!

Is the Governor looking forward to high inflation as an exit from Lebanon's debt burden? This is a very very strong statement. A look at the original interview in Executive Magazine shows that the quote is taken out of context.

The real revelation in all of this is that the Mises Institute, which purports to be "the world center of the ... libertarian political and social theory" has become a source of complete piffle. I'll stick to readings from the Hayek Institute.

There is no reason to celebrate Palestinian rights

2010-08-17T16:28:00.000-07:00

There is an Arabic expression that I sometimes find useful:

"خذ الحكمة من أفواه المجانين"

Loosely translated, it means: "seek wisdom from the mouth of the insane." In this spirit, I would like to recall something that the mad messianic Generalissimo in Rabiyeh said a month ago:

"We can't issue a law that gives the Palestinians the right to own property.....we can issue a law to reclaim properties owned by foreigners"

He is of course dead wrong to suggest that we can - or should - seek to reclaim property sold to foreigners, but he is right make a link between the two. How can Lebanon bar Palestinians from owning property, but allow other foreigners to do so?

There is something fundamentally flawed with the law that Parliament passed today, granting Palestinians the right to work in Lebanon. It stinks of continuing discrimination against one particular nationality. It is also absolutely the wrong move for two reasons:

It continues to bar Palestinians from jobs that require membership in a syndicate, a medieval guild-like system that should be abolished for everyone.
It continues to bar Palestinians from owning property.

What is the law doing exactly? It is allowing Palestinians to take basic jobs, but bars them from more professional jobs, such as doctors or lawyers. Basically, the law is telling skilled, potentially successful professionals that they are encouraged to move to another country.

Furthermore, by denying Palestinians the right to own property, we are telling every entrepreneurial Palestinian that even if you are successful, you can't buy a house. What sort of incentive is that? Why should this person bother being entrepreneurial at all? Property rights underpin the most essential incentives for an economy to work.

The problem with the law originates in the way the debate was framed in the first place, by the reliably schizophrenic Walid Jumblatt. This law should not have been presented to parliament as a call for Palestinian "rights" - as though it was a charity endeavour - when knows that there continues to be underlying resentment towards them among a large part of the population. Rather, Parliament should be discussing "Lebanon's" interests. It is in our interest that the Palestinians are economically successful because that will only strengthen our economy. It should also be the right of any Lebanese business to employ the best person for a particular job - be they Palestinian, French or Indian. We should also have the right to sell property to whoever is willing to pay the highest price, be they Palestinian, Saudi or Extraterrestrial. We would be doing ourselves a disservice by not welcoming Palestinian investment in our country with a red carpet.

It is true that Palestinian groups routinely violate Lebanese laws, and have yet to accept to disarm. But holding an entire population of 400,000 hostage for the actions of a few thousand thugs is the sort of collective punishment one would expect from Saddam or Stalin. This is not acceptable behaviour by the sort of democracy Lebanon aspires to be.

The listener's best friend

2010-08-17T14:29:00.000-07:00

Every event needs a Miss Sweetie Poo.

Une bonne occasion de se taire

2010-08-15T15:26:00.000-07:00

It is unfortunate that there wasn't a Jacques Chirac in Koraytem yesterday to tell Hariri that he missed a good opportunity to remain silent. Everyone was expecting him to say something regarding the outrageous claims of Hassan Nasrallah. Instead, he decided to use the opportunity to explain why he chooses to remain silent:

The premier highlighted the fact that he had abstained from making statements "throughout the last period."
"I will continue like that because I want calm, because through calm we can talk to and hear each other, but through screaming, no one would be able to hear the other. We want to calmly discuss everything we approach in this country," Hariri added.

Run that by me again? Are you saying we can talk by saying nothing? Or are you saying that the only things you have to say are inflammatory? Can't you reply to screams calmly? More importantly, are you distancing yourself from the few reasonable replies to Nasrallah by your supporters?

The attempt to sabotage the work of the Special Tribunal is a bigger threat to the rule of law than the actual assassination of Rafik Hariri, Basil Fuleihan, Gebran Tueni, Samir Kassir et al. It is also part of a transparent but insidious attempt to break the country's engagement with international efforts created specifically to help Lebanon (such as UNIFIL). If Nasrallah was simply concerned about getting off the hook, he can easily do what Qaddafi/Kadhafi did with Lockerbie and blame it on a few rogue operatives. I am sure there is no shortage of patsies in his "martyr"-generating death machine.

Hariri got it all wrong when he said “I am concerned .... because I am Rafik Hariri’s son." March 14 was triggered by Rafik Hariri's assassination, but was not just about mourning his death. It was about a much bigger issue: establishing a democratic, independent country. Enforcing the rule of law and bringing terrorists to justice is a most critical part of this process. There is no room for silence.

I miss Jacques Chirac.

Pan-handling to waste money

2010-08-14T14:07:00.000-07:00

Defence Minister Murr announced the creation of a special account at the Central Bank to raise funds for the Lebanese Army. The account will be used to collect voluntary donations from the Lebanese, and he even seeded the account with a donation of his own. A fine patriotic gesture....but wait a minute, what will the funds be actually used for?

While the Lebanese armed forces were amidst the Great Landscaping Battle, a good (and perplexingly wannabe-Lebanese American) friend of mine asked me a simple question: Why does Lebanon actually need an Army? Why not have a Costa Rica-like state, with no army at all?

The truth is that we need an army to feed our delusions.

The Lebanese government never deployed the army at moments of serious need, and the Army is almost always a spectator during any real battles in the country. The army was able to deploy in South Lebanon only after the area was completely devastated by the 2006 Hizbollah-Israel war. The army failed to protect civilians of Beirut in May 2008, and was not deployed until five days after a gang of militias had overrun the city. Having a large army barrack in Baalback did not stop two narcotic-smuggling clans from lobbing rocket propelled grenades at each other in the town yesterday.

To be fair, the army has been effective in dealing with one terrorist organisation, Fatah al-Islam. What is not clear is whether this matter could have been handled more effectively - at a lower cost in terms of human lives - by the Internal Security Forces.

It would be a monumental stretch to imagine that the Lebanese Army will be able to stop any Israeli invasion, or even Syrian tanks from rolling across the border. Would it not be better to be pragmatic and just rely on the ISF? Why not use our scarce resources for far more achievable and basic goals, such as a reliable supply of electricity and water?

Does Lebanon really need to pay the cost of training soldiers to shoot and ski simultaneously? Or spend on maintaining a prime real estate beach club for officers, even if some of them are cute?

Stifling Barnabas

2010-08-13T15:14:00.000-07:00

I have to admit that I never thought of Lebanese churches as "fandamentalist" until The DaVinci Code was banned 2004. It did not portray the Vatican favourably, but that did not mean that Italy should ban it. Freedom of speech, after all, should at a minimum protect fiction! Not in Lebanon, alas, which enjoys the dubious honour of being, along with Sri Lanka and the Solomon Islands, one of the handful of countries to ban the movie and book.

A new twist in Lebanon's church-friendly censorship has emerged. Two TV stations with overwhelmingly Moslem audiences decided to stop airing a series depicting the life of Christ that was made in Iran. There can be no doubt that the series is nothing more or less than the "approved" story of Christ as told by Iran's ayatollahs. After all, how many film directors in Iran would dare do otherwise? Notwithstanding this, the series has been yanked off the air after the Catholic Pastor of the Church of Byblos announced that it is offensive and it is based on the Gospel of Barnabas which is "not at all recognised by our Church."

He did not stop to think for a minute that Barnabas happens to coincide with the Koran. But that does not matter because Moslems would happily oblige. After all, they need "Christian" support the next time they are offended by an episode of South Park.

The only victim of this mutual masturbation is Lebanon's freedom of expression, or whatever is left of it.

Don't get me wrong: I have no interest in watching the series (though I probably would if I am paid enough to sit through it). This said, we all should have the right to choose not to watch.