Thursday, January 20, 2011

Lebanon needs Czech assistance, not Saudi mediation

The failure of Saudi mediation is hardly a surprise.  It was a futile exercise from the start.

Hizbollah's track record is hardly one of compromise, and there is no reason to believe that Nasrallah will start compromising now.  This is an organisation that believes it is on a divine mission, and despite having less than half the number of parliamentary seats as Hariri, expects everything to go its way.

AK wrote an excellent analysis of Hizbollah's recent moves.  The best that Hizbollah can achieve is protracted civil conflict. They cannot control Lebanon.

What are the options? Another civil war would be the worst possible outcome.  We've been there. It cost a lot of lives, and achieved nothing.

A division of Lebanon into cantons, under some form of confederation, would not only be less costly, but would lay the foundations of a more stable and prosperous country.  I disagree with Mustapha at BeirutSpring  that Lebanon can't be partitioned.  The very fact that he is able to produce a map showing areas with majorities of different sects demonstrates that it can be partitioned.  I would go further and argue that we need even more cantons than his map implies. The more cantons the better, because it means even smaller local governments with a greater need to be competitive.

What Lebanon needs is not Saudi mediators looking to maintain the status quo at any cost. We need the assistance of people with experience is splitting a country without spilling blood.


  1. brilliant, courageous, and to the point. thank you for this post.

  2. Does that mean that we will have to change all of our bumper-stickers from RL to CL?